Today may be the bottom for ExxonMobil. A triple (or quadruple? quintuple? octuple?) lindy of factors confluence in a culmination of pure culmination. The stock has went nowhere in a decade & is off about 13% so far this year after under-performing the market last year. We are not trading far off the 2010 lows. …
Category Archives: Overreaction
Indexes Hide Carnage
One year ago tomorrow Jay Powell said we’re “a long way” from neutral interest rates. That was the cue for the stock market to crater. Which it did right until Christmas of last year. This year’s strong performance is nothing but the market offsetting last year’s Q4 carnage. Zoom out to the beginning of 2018 …
Trillion Dollar Tweets, Again
It makes sense for the stock market to be on fire today. The US president recently taunted Russia over an accident with a failed nuclear weapon China is amassing troops near the Hong Kong border & there was violence at the Hong Kong airport. Argentina’s stock market lost 48% of its value in USD terms …
You Were YuanDerful Tonight
The RMB fell through 7 to a Dollar. That caused a sell off in most risk assets (outside of bonds, gold & Bitcoin). Shortly after noon this is what the market looked like. Outside of bonds, relative outperformance largely meant falling only a percent instead of falling 2% or 3%. South Korea is heavily export …
Imma Getmy EduMaCation
A Rather Uneducated Opinion on Education Software Before the market started falling apart late last year on the Fed’s narrative of rate & balance sheet normalization online education company 2U (ticker TWOU) was trading above $90 a share. As the market broke, so did the stock. It lost nearly 2/3 of its market cap leading …
MOAR PETS
Yesterday stocks like FNKO & PETS were both up huge (around 7%). I sold off the PETS I had in my IRA & a bit of the PETS I had in my regular trading account yesterday. Today PETS ramped again & I sold down another 2/3 of what I had left in my regular trading …
Risk Events
Investing is managing risk as a cost of entry: “If you’re not willing to react with equanimity to a market price decline of 50% two or three times a century, you’re not fit to be a common shareholder and you deserve the mediocre result you’re going to get.” Charlie Munger When a narrative of major …
Fun With Funko
Late last year when the market imploded Funko slid hard. They went from an all time high of $31.12 a share down to $11.22 a share. Over the past couple months they started to recover again with the broader stock market, and have touched $25. When the market was up big on the narrative that …
Scientific Games
Scientific Games (SGMS) reported earnings & the market reaction was beautiful with a powerful short squeeze causing the stock to jump 15%. I figured they were going to have a positive reaction to their earnings announcement, if for no other reason the ability to shift narrative. they had just recently spun out their SciPlay mobile …
CVS Panning 2018 Q4 Was…
… a great buying opportunity. Which is part of why insiders were buying. CVS is up around 5% in premarket trading today. They beat earnings & revenues, raised full year guidance, outperformed in their retail business & outperformed in their health-care benefits segment. A month ago they were under $52 a share & a week …