Many sectors of value stocks have been murdered with horrible under-performance over the past decade to 14 years. Set the Fed Funds Rate to zero, have the ECB go negative with rates and even Greek bonds throw up a negative yield. Literally junk bonds with negative yields. Greece’s three-year debt turned negative on Friday, and …
Category Archives: Market Shifts
Free Trade & Investment
The stock markets are up big over the past couple days on optimism around trade talks between China and President Trump. Trump is really trying to goose the stock market, talking past the sale Monday is Columbus day, so when trade discussions conclude with tariffs delayed but no actual deal that will likely be ugly …
Taking a Break
The market is up higher on optimism around trade, or increased central bank intervention to prevent market risk from being realized, or something else. And so many of the momentum stocks have been crushed of late. Meanwhile some beaten down value play stocks have been moving like penny stocks, with 5% daily moves. And so many …
A Dealership Full of Cars.com
I think the Cars.com sell off is more than a bit overdone and have been an avid dip buyer over the past couple days. It hasn’t felt particularly comfortable watching the stock careen lower and lower, but in reality the company is valued at about 1/3 of what it was valued at when a deep …
Abrupt Shift from Growth to Value?
Google is drawing regulatory scrutiny from the United States Department of Justice, which has sent their stock sliding about 7% so far today. At this point, Google has literally almost nobody on their side in the political game. Everyone has a reason to hate them. Republicans think they squelch free speech that does not align …
Effect and Cause of The China Probrem
I think it was the venerable Jim Grant who I remembered hearing emphasize that markets are reciprocals. Risk is what you take, price is what you pay & value is what you get. Quite often the explanation after the fact is getting cause and effect backward. Bonds strengthen with volatility, leading to market sell off. …
Trillion Dollar Tweets, RIP
Here’s an actual Bloomberg headline which shows just how fake the “markets” have become… Stock Traders Wait Anxiously for a Trump Tweet to Reverse Rout three weeks after the president rekindled the trade war with China, sending the Dow into a 4% tailspin, traders are growing increasingly impatient for their dose of White House succor. …
The Credit Markets Drive the Stock Market
The following Brian Reynolds interview by RealVision highlights how important pension funds are for driving the credit markets & stock market. A few notes from it: pension funds are significantly underfunded & they roughly need to get about a 7.5% return to meet cashflow obligations pensions tend to prefer the credit markets to the stock …
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Scientific Games
Scientific Games (SGMS) reported earnings & the market reaction was beautiful with a powerful short squeeze causing the stock to jump 15%. I figured they were going to have a positive reaction to their earnings announcement, if for no other reason the ability to shift narrative. they had just recently spun out their SciPlay mobile …
Trading the Trade War
The trade war ending has already been priced into the market, which is part of why the market has tanked for the last couple days after another round of Trillion dollar Tweets. When the market sold off Monday I sold off the VIRT position I had recently established. By close of Monday the stock market …