Rising Rate Environment Meets Market Reflexivity

Almost nothing looked good yesterday & the market was off a couple percent across the board, giving a third straight down day. Longer duration bonds have pulled back from recent highs, with the market suggesting the Fed won’t hike many more times this cycle. something happened October 3rd when Powell said the US was “still …

Fade the Tweet

Another trade war negotiations working utterly fantastic well hugely big Tweet from the president provides a ramp for the stock market to open up. Very productive conversations going on with China! Watch for some important announcements! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 11, 2018 I used that & the Libya oil issue to exit the …

Zillow Premier Agent Business Model Shift

Apparently, we are once again deep into FOMO: “We’ve had clients across the board call in and ask where to put their money,” said Tom Stringfellow, president and chief investment officer of San Antonio-based Frost Investment Advisors. “Investors aren’t making any mass movement trying to get out of the markets, but they’re really looking for …

Trillion Dollar Tweets

On the most recent stock market sell off longer duration bonds did not strengthen anywhere near as much as they had historically. Bond yields fell slightly, but only slightly. Whereas in stock market sell offs prior to this year bonds usually strengthened. Very, very important chart: The equity market selloff did not result in significant …

Hide Out From Volatility in Bitcoin

One big issue with mean reversion trades is when the range breaks it can break HARD & FAST.  If you use tons of leverage on mean reversion you can get hit hard when the range breaks. A couple of my favorite mean reverting / rangebound stocks over the past few months were Funko & AT&T. …